India's Hiring Plan 2013
For several months, employment in India has been under the cloud, but here’s some good news for all the job hunters in the country.
India is the most optimistic nation in terms of recruitment for the next quarter, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
Indian employers report robust hiring plans for the fourth quarter 2013, the ManpowerGroup report says.
The Net Employment Outlook for India is at 40 percent, indicating a vigorous hiring pace in the coming months.
The survey was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 5,059 employers in India.
Employers suggest a considerable improvement of 14 percentage points when compared to the previous quarter in recruitment plans and the year-on-year outlook will become stronger by 22 percentage points.
Amid all the optimistic hiring prospects, 41 percent of employers expect payrolls to increase while 1 percent forecast a decrease. As many as 48 percent anticipate no change, still resulting in a positive hiring space.
Improvement in the IT Firms and opportunities for job additions in the growing e-commerce sector is the significant cause for turnaround in employer confidence.
Employers in the wholesale and retail trade sector and services sector have the most confident hiring plans, where Net Employment outlook is at 46 percent and 45 percent respectively.
Region-wise, employers in the northern region of India are most optimistic. The net employment outlook is at 52 percent, according to the report.
India, Taiwan, Panama, Singapore and Brazil have the strongest hiring expectations in the international labour market. And the weakest job opportunities for the next quarter are in countries like Italy, Spain and Finland.
And if you are planning a job change, there are factors that are playing spoilsport for job prospectsin India. These are the factors you should consider before you plan any job change or seek a new job.
Investment cycle
There is a close relationship between investment cycle and employment generation. When companies make investments in new projects, it triggers hiring. After a strong investment cycle for a decade, India has seen reversal in tend since 2011-12. Investment has further weakened in 2012-13, the Reserve Bank of India said in a study.
The effect of this slowdown can be seen in the job market too. In the April-June quarter of FY13, hiring activity saw a 20% drop, while 14% fewer jobs were generated in the second half, according to surveys by industry body Assocham.
Dip in demand
Businesses are scaling back investment because they are not expecting demand to pick up. Demand conditions are likely to remain subdued in fiscal 2014 as the economy is expected to grow at slower rate. This could further drag down hiring activity.
When the number of people employed goes up, workers get money in hand to spend. This in turn would increase the overall demand for goods and services. When companies see more demand, they then increase investment spending yet again.
Policy paralysis
Hiring takes a back seat in an unstable macroeconomic environment. India is heading for a general election in 2014. Once elections are called, the government cannot take any significant policy steps due to the code of conduct.
Lack of strong reform measures are the biggest dampener for the economy now. Several key policy initiatives are pending in sectors like power, telecom, coal and oil and gas industry. This will also be reflected in corporate hiring plans.
Here’s to a dynamic labour market forecast for the October-December time frame. Good luck job hunters!
